[Paul Yeager] Coming up on Market to Market -- the High Court hears arguments over tariffs and their use.

Commodity groups look for the next valuable export product.

The journey of this year's World Food Prize Laureate.

And commodity market analysis with Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth next.

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They're very dear to our hearts.

It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

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Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

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This is the Friday, November 7th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager, some government reports may start to show up next week, even as the shutdown continues.

That leaves one private sector issue from Creighton University.

The Mid Business Conditions Index went above growth neutral in October as regional manufacturing moved sideways with elevated wholesale inflation, according to the director of the survey, Ernie Goss.

Some of those same manufacturers were watching activity inside the Supreme Court this week, as the president's tariffs were put under scrutiny.

Justices and attorneys went back and forth for more than two hours in a ruling not expected for months.

David Miller reports on the needle threading.

Both sides tried to navigate.

[Narrator] The Supreme Court was the site of the highest level legal challenge to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff agenda.

The case centers on whether or not Trump can use the nearly 50-year-old international Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.

The justices expressed skepticism that he has this power to use the major questions doctrine.

The same policy former President Joe Biden tried when offering partial forgiveness to student loan debt.

The president has warned that the United States will be rendered defenseless and possibly reduced to almost third world status if the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs he imposed this year on nearly every country on Earth.

[Donald Trump] But if you look at China by putting a large 100% tariff over and above the tariffs, they already paid, they came to the table, they talked.

We made a wonderful deal for everybody.

Our farmers, as you know, with soybeans at levels that nobody's ever seen before.

We, we were able to make phenomenal deals.

If we didn't have the tariffs, we wouldn't have been able to do that.

So.

[Reporter] So then do you agree then that Americans are paying those tariffs?

[Donald Trump] I think no, I don't agree.

I think that they might be paying something.

But when you take the overall impact, the Americans are gaining tremendously.

They're gaining through national security.

Look, I'm ending war because of these tariffs.

[Narrator] The result of the arguments won't likely be revealed for several weeks or even months.

Tariffs won't likely be going away.

Trump could impose tariffs under other statutes, but there would be limitations.

Slowing speed and blocking severity before their day in court, The White House released a long list of what the U.S.

and China agreed to last week in South Korea.

Included were a Chinese suspension of limits on the export of rare earth elements and an increase in imports of U.S.

agricultural products.

This includes a 12-million-ton purchase of U.S.

soybeans over the next two months.

In recent days, China has purchased American wheat, but has yet to purchase any beans.

Brazil, however, has sold 20 cargoes bound for Chinese ports.

Despite the truce, any new loads of soybeans will still be subject to a 13% import tariff.

The U.S., among other moves, agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese imports imposed to curb the flow of fentanyl by ten percentage points for the next year.

But a 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect.

[MUSIC] The American Food and Agriculture Pavilion is now officially open.

[Narrator] Even with import duties still in place, U.S.

businesses opened a showcase in Shanghai to continue promoting American agricultural products.

[Jim Sutter] And I think we've sort of turned a page and there are new opportunities now.

And I think from our U.S.

soybean industry, we're very pleased.

You know, we expected that this was a short-term bump in the road, but now we're very happy to have the opportunity for our U.S.

soy from our 500,000 soybean farmers to be coming back into China.

[Narrator] China remains the world's largest buyer of soybeans.

In 2024.

The Middle Kingdom purchased nearly half of all U.S.

soybean exports.

[Erick Zheng] We don't like tariffs.

Tariffs are not good for anybody.

And certainly, there will be no winners in a trade war.

[Narrator] For market to market.

I'm David Miller.

[Yeager] Dr.

Norman Borlaug is called the father of the Green revolution, a long-term effort to feed hungry people all over the world.

His work is celebrated in his home state of Iowa each fall, and this year, the winner of the top prize has roots in Brazil.

Dr.

Mary Angela Hungria is a scientist whose life work is the microorganisms in many crops grown here and around the planet.

Her profile, as done by the World Food Prize, is this week's cover story.

[Narrator] In 1966, in a small town in Brazil, an 8-year-old girl unwrapped a gift from her grandmother.

It was a book, Microbe Hunters by Paul de Kruif.

Inside its pages were stories of scientists who unlocked invisible worlds, who forever changed the course of human history.

[Mariangela Hungria] Since I was a child, I dreamed of being a microbiologist and fighting against hunger.

But it seemed improbable that I could ever succeed.

Even so, I chose to be an agronomist.

[Narrator] Her teachers urged her to choose a different path, but she refused to be deterred, and she enrolled in the Luis de Queiroz College of Agriculture at the University of Sao Paulo.

It was the late 1970s.

Soil science was dominated by men.

Fertility was defined by chemicals and soil.

Microbiology was an afterthought.

Unger's focus was on nitrogen, an essential nutrient typically supplied by expensive chemical fertilizers.

Her idea was bold use, naturally occurring bacteria to provide nitrogen to crops, reducing environmental harm, and cutting costs for farmers.

The Microgreen Revolution was born.

Hungria earned her doctorate at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and she set out to build an ambitious research program from scratch.

Through decades of research and development at Embrapa.

Soja, the national Soybean Center of Brazil.

Hungria built her field of study from the ground up.

She developed more than 30 technologies related to microorganisms, including a range of microbial inoculants for soybeans, common beans, maize, wheat, rice, pasture, grasses, and other major crops.

She focused on elite strains of rhizobia, a symbiotic bacteria that forms nitrogen fixing nodules on the roots of legumes.

She tested their effects on crops and identified varieties that responded best to the microorganisms.

Yet Hungria's work went far beyond the laboratory in the spirit of Norman Borlaug's Take it to the farmer philosophy and vision.

Hungria spent as much time in the field working with farmers as she did in the lab.

She led field days, conducted extension training, and wrote technical pamphlets.

In 1994, she published the first Portuguese language manual for tropical soil microbiology methods.

These efforts ensured that her scientific breakthroughs translated to real world impact.

As a professor, Hungria trained and mentored over 200 young researchers, nurturing the next generation of agricultural scientists.

She has published over 500 scientific articles, technical manuals, books and book chapters, communicating her findings with clarity and accessibility.

Hungria has been a staunch advocate and mentor for women in science.

She guides her students with both rigor and compassion, sharing her experiences as a scientist and mother to inspire others.

Navigating this balance.

Her mentorship has empowered countless women to pursue and thrive in agricultural science careers.

Her work has transformed Brazilian agriculture.

The microbial inoculants she helped develop are now applied to more than 40 million hectares in Brazil and have spread to farms globally.

Microbial inoculation is now used on 85% of Brazil's soybean fields.

More than 30 million hectares, the highest adoption rate in the world.

Her innovations saved Brazilian farmers an estimated $25 billion annually, prevent 230 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, and boost yields beyond what synthetic fertilizer can achieve.

Brazil has become the world's leading soybean producer and exporter, with India's work laying the foundation for the country's agricultural and economic growth.

Over the past several decades.

In a time of immense pressure to produce more food with less resources and lower environmental impact.

Her pioneering work advances sustainable production, eco innovation, decarbonization, one health and, above all, food security.

Through her groundbreaking research commitment to sustainable crop production and dedication to education, Hungria has earned global recognition as a transformative agricultural scientist.

[Kim Reynolds] So now, therefore, I, Kim Reynolds, governor of the State of Iowa, do hereby proclaim Dr.

Hungria of Brazil as the 2025 World Food Prize laureate.

[MUSIC] [Hungria] I feel especially honored to receive this prize as a woman.

For centuries, women's roles in agriculture have been invisible and yet in most countries, we are the ones cultivating the land, saving the best seeds and passing down nutritional knowledge through generations.

[Announcer] Next, the Market to Market report.

[Yeager] What started as optimism with China potentially buying U.S.

grain turned to disappointment as sales of any note failed to materialize for the week.

The nearby wheat contract fell $0.06, and the December corn contract lost $0.04.

Soybeans experienced some profit taking with the early rally brought on by trade news.

The January soybean contract added $0.02, while December meals sold off 4.50 per ton.

December cotton contracted by $2 and a cent per hundredweight over the dairy parlor.

December Class three milk futures weakened by $0.23.

The livestock market was lower.

December cattle fell by 8.3 3rd January.

Feeders cut 12.32, and the December lean hog contract, weakened by $1.

88.

In the currency markets, U.S.

dollar index was lower by 25 ticks.

November.

Crude oil dropped $1.14 per barrel.

Comex gold lost $0.05 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down more than three points to settle at five 5385.

Here, now, to lend us her insight on these and other trends is one of our regular market analysts.

Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth.

Hello, Christi.

Hey, Paul, I was thinking while reading some of those numbers over and over and down and down the sun, we lost that our sun this week, like the market lost some sun too this week.

Where's that sunny disposition?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I think, you know, when you look at markets as a whole, you have that old saying that's been talked about forever.

You need to feed a bull.

And I think there's no new information to extend us for soybeans.

Not necessarily.

Meaning you need to drastically see it change.

But I just think that the lack of information out there right now is causing the market that you brought in those fresh buyers, and now you're pausing to wait it out and see if we can get any more details.

We did have USDA come out and say that they are going to have a crop report next Friday, the 14th.

They will get the field surveys out, and I'm not sure how they're going to get it put together, but we're going to have one.

And so we do get information soon.

[Yeager] Do we feel like we're in a better place because we know something might be coming, or were we in a better place when we knew nothing was coming?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] I think it was when nothing was coming personally, because now you are starting to have these private estimates come out for yield, and they've been a lot higher than I initially thought they would be.

You know, for these yield estimates.

And so, all of a sudden you have these yields that these private estimates are coming out and they're not that far off from the current yield that we have way back.

And so now I'm sitting there saying, okay, if you post those numbers next Friday, that's not going to be good for this market.

[Yeager] Yeah.

Let's start with wheat if we could, because that was hey, China bought some wheat.

Can that continue?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah I think you saw that momentum and it hit its retracements and it hit a moving average.

And it was like dead on.

Stop the market and drop back off.

And I think what we do need is we do need somebody to come in and purchase some of our wheat.

It would be nice to see it happen.

Overall, I think what's ringing in the back of my mind is the last trade agreement was based off of dollars purchased, right?

It wasn't like we're going to commit to this many bushels of this and this many.

It was like, we're willing to spend this much money on us ag products.

It's a little bit different this year.

But last go around, you really saw that surprise that China stepped in and was buying corn when not a lot of people expected them to.

And so, I think when you started to see them purchase some wheat and that was not on anyone's radar, that you started to say, hey, could this be the trickledown effect?

Did they talk about soybeans?

Commit to so many soybeans, but they're actually going to start buying other products as well.

But I think it was kind of that initial and we didn't see anything else.

So, the market faded off.

And you really you hit that moving average.

You saw the sellers come in when they were supposed to and brought it back down.

It was not a good close for Chicago wheat today on the charts.

So that makes me a little bit concerned.

[Yeager] And when you look at corn for 35 is probably a number I just swore to you, because that seems to be the troublesome number that we just can't seem to break.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

So, you know, initially you thought that if you could close the gap in corn, you would extend yourself quite a bit higher and you didn't.

And so, I'm just afraid that you're stuck here like you were stuck at 420.

We are stuck there for so long.

Got that initial move.

But here's the thing.

If you do not see yield come down in this crop report a week from now, you are going to see a big carryout.

I think what people are forgetting is that one of our last reports we got before the government shutdown was quarterly grain stocks, and there was more corn on hand due to low feed usage.

And that that is going to show up in this report.

We know that there is more old crop around than we initially thought.

So that needs to come through.

And if you don't see those yield decline, you're really probably looking at A22 to A24.

And that is not going to support this market.

[Yeager] All right.

So, we talked a little bit about profit taking in beans.

But in corn are we at that point right now where we maybe need to make some sales.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

Corn is like tricky for me right now because it's not at a great price.

Guys aren't thrilled about it, but it's been in such a narrow range that it's kind of felt like you could put it on the back burner to a degree and say, hey, it's not really moving all that much.

Let's just give it some time.

I do think that if you get a bearish report, you can bring it back down to probably the 415 level.

I would use that as a buying opportunity with courage calls.

And then hopefully into this time frame, into the December, late December, January, February time frame, hopefully find those marketing opportunities.

We know seasonally you still come down a little bit here throughout the next month or so.

So, it wouldn't surprise me if we got a bearish report.

That 415 number is my target to look at being a buyer.

But overall, as far as marketing opportunity, I would say if it's corn, I'm not crazy about it right now, unless for some odd reason you got to push on basis.

And I just really haven't seen that.

I've seen the pushes happen in soybeans right now, but I have not seen them in corn.

[Yeager] Well, you mentioned bears, which means we have to talk about a bullish question.

Last week, Sue was pretty bullish on a couple of things.

And this is a question from Phil in Ontario where he wants to know is the current stagger in the soybean.

Is it bullish push?

Is it real?

Is this soybean bullish push real or will we see these beans in the teens depending on South American conditions?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah I think this is a great question Phil I think that there's so many moving aspects to soybeans right now.

If you really break down the trade agreement with China, you could spin it however you wanted to spin it.

You could say it was great, it was fantastic.

You could spin it on the fact that it's you're pretty much having them commit to a small amount this year and average at best moving forward.

The big question is, you know, were we going to see them at all?

We know the writing on the wall is that China has preferred Brazil soybeans that initially, you know, eventually we were going to lose our market share the way it was.

So at least we have them committed to buying some of our soybeans.

So, I think it was good there.

As far as if you see beans in the teens, I think that really directly relates to two things.

One, where do we see yield come in?

Because if you're not going to downtick that yield, you're stuck for a little bit.

Two it comes to South American weather.

Like the question comes, the thing that worries me about Brazil is that Brazil's kind of that same aspect we're in as far as corn right now is that we planted so many acres of corn that even with a crop problem, which we really didn't have, even with a crop problem, you are still looking at large production.

That's where Brazil is at right now for soybeans is that they continue to grow their acreage so much that you are just sitting in a situation where it would take a really big problem for them to have that, and you look at kind of how proactive China has been, you know, you look at Brazil's soybean exports for the month of October, there were like 2 million metric ton more than they were the prior year.

So, China's been gearing up for this.

So, I just worry, you know, it's going to take something very large for it to be able to happen to.

But I look at it and I look at it as more long-term, long-term story.

So, like Sue said, a year from now.

[Yeager] A year from now.

So, I mean, we punched that $11 mark, finished at 1101 on the week.

Still that's higher than what we have been.

We have pushed through some significant technical marks.

Does that give you hope?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] It does to a degree.

I also what gives me hope is that even at $11, I'm going to be honest, even at 1150 $12, the U.S.

farmer is not excited to be planting soybeans.

So, it's going to take a lot to be able to say, hey, let's plant a lot of soybeans.

Even rotational base.

You know, you should see more soybeans next year.

You still talk to people and they say, no, I'm still going to go with corn, especially with high rent prices that you have.

You're going to see them take that chance at a high yield.

And so, I just think that the writing's on the wall for the situation to remain tight.

But it's going to take a lot of pencil pushing and getting them to actually commit to their purchases.

[Yeager] I'm smirking only because I received a couple of messages this week about people telling me they were going to raise the rent on their farmer, and that's going to be a legitimate discussion that people are going to have.

They're going to see certain things, and that farmer is going to be in a tougher spot.

The stone x mention or estimate was 53.6 bushels per acre.

That's still a great number.

And you talk about acreage in the fight.

So, let's we talk about planting.

Let's just real quickly finish off selling.

You don't sound very excited to sell right now.

And it doesn't sound like from what you just said, nobody else is either.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

So, I'm not excited about selling corn, but we've been moving on marketing for soybeans because I just think that you got to really respect this rally that we've had.

You've also seen a push on basis because you're starting to see it.

And I think farmers did a really good job at tucking away soybeans that the end user is saying, all right, we actually do need to push for the bid and get it.

So, I think you saw both sides come in and give you, you know, a dollar to $1.50 higher prices.

You should reward that.

[Yeager] Are we rewarding anything in the cattle market right now?

Is that part of this sell off?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] You know the nice thing about cattle is that the futures and the cash price have not been going hand in hand, right.

So that has been great.

But what I look at now is that you take this market and you've pretty much taken all the premium away of the border being closed.

So, it doesn't sound like the border is going to open up anytime soon.

And so, if you've taken all that premium away and we come two weeks from now, a month from now, and they're still saying no, we don't feel comfortable opening up that border, that premium needs to be put back in there.

We're holding support right where we need to for the feeders and live cattle.

And you look at the situation, it's not going to change any time soon.

So, my biggest concern would be if you found a way to get Brazil's beef back in the U.S.

I think that is where you would break the support line.

But the border right now, it just sounds like all the work they went through to keep Screwworm out of the U.S., they're not going to risk it anytime soon.

You've had multiple meetings with Mexico coming and trying to talk to us about opening it up, and it just doesn't seem like they're quite there.

[Yeager] So that gets to be then the impact on the feeder market as well, because we got to figure out where retention is going to happen.

We got to figure out what we're going to feed these animals.

If we see corn hanging around, are you in a position to fill any of those feed needs right now?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I still think you have that chance here.

Coming back down to 415 for corn, and especially with just the recent estimates that we've had, corn has done a really good job staying in a range.

So, the upper end of the range that I think are even like a next marketing target is 443 on December corn.

And so that's actually, you know what $0.08 away.

So, it's not that far away that I'm willing to say let's sit back.

Let's wait on this.

And if you end up paying a little bit more for feed use, I think that's still okay.

Given the price levels that we're at for cattle that I'm not too worried about those now.

But if we did push back, like I said at that 415 mark, that's where I would be going after some form of ownership on some feed needs.

[Yeager] And you talked about moving averages in some of the grains.

It's also the big story in the in the hog market, 200 day moving averages, where we're kind of bouncing around.

What's that telling.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

You need to hold this level right.

And you're holding support levels from your summer hogs from this summer in July.

You're at such big levels of support for hogs right now that if you break that, I am very, very concerned.

And so, we're holding in there.

I think one big question when you look at hogs is that you had managed money very long prior to this government shutdown, and we have no idea what they've done.

I have a feeling that they've been massive sellers and hopefully that dries up pretty quick, that that can really help the market find the support it needs to find and build moving forward seasonally.

You do still see some pressure coming in through the rest of the year for hogs, but I do think that it's doing what it needs to do on those support lines.

[Yeager] Do you?

The meat story is one that is just not going away, and the holiday is always that story.

But again, with a lack of reports, we'll just have to see how it all sorts out.

Kristie, thank you very much.

I'm just going to speak and maybe I'll let you answer some questions in plus.

Thank you.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Thank you.

[Yeager] I appreciate your time.

You've been watching the market analysis segment here.

And in a moment we will continue our discussion in an online only segment.

We call that Market Plus.

So how do you find it?

You search Market Plus with Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth wherever that you get your podcasts, or you can hear that conversation and read it as well on our website of Markettomarket.org.

Rural America certainly knows how to show off in a good photo.

We have some of those posted on our Instagram page.

Follow along for the images that we're talking about and other behind the scenes tidbits that we might share at instagram.com/MarkettoMarketShow .

Next week harvesting the superfood blueberries while growing new markets.

Thank you so much for watching!

Have a great week!

♪♪ ♪♪ [Announcer] Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

♪♪ [Announcer] I wouldn't be here without my customers.

Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers.

They're very dear to our hearts.

It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

♪♪ [Announcer] Tomorrow.

For over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.